Haram may soon face an “unprecedented test
on the battlefield against more capable forces
from Cameroon, Chad and Niger”.
The comments came as Boko Haram suffered
heavy losses after launching a first major
attack in Niger on Friday. The clashes involved
troops from Niger and Chad.
The foreign officials have commented on Boko
Haram’s growth in strength and widening the
area of their attacks, and also noted that
Nigerian military has been affected by heavy
losses and damaged morale. Boko Haram are
“financially secure” and able to go
compete with the Nigerian military after
capturing an arsenal of arms, the US
specialists say. However, they acknowledge
that military intervention of neighboring powers
“potentially can be a game changer in a
positive way”.
US officials drew a parallel with Somalia,
where regional armies have rolled back Shebab
extremists, and said Boko Haram might find
its power curtailed by neighboring states.
Boko Haram’s weaknesses
Although the group’s brutality and ideology are
heavily shaped by its leader, Abubakar Shekau,
there is no clear heir apparent if Shekau is
killed in battle, US specialists say.
Moreover, the more ground Boko Haram
controls, the more vulnerable it will become to
conventional military attacks as tries to defend
large stretches of territory, the officials say.
Addressing Boko Haram’s pushing out of
Nigeria’s Northeast, they note there are no
indications that the group has the ability to
stage attacks on oil fields in the country’s
South or to orchestrate terror attacks in the
West.
Also, despite Boko Haram express “an affinity
for ISIL (the Islamic State group)” in their
propaganda videos, “there are still a lot of
questions out there as to how ISIL views Boko
Haram,” an official said. “The Arab world is
still incredibly racist,” he explained, and jihadis
in the Middle East are unlikely to view militants
in Nigeria as fellow warriors with an equal
status.
Eventually, the terrorist group could face a
food shortage as it has driven out whole
populations in areas under its control, leaving
farms abandoned with no one to plant and
harvest crops.
